A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
